Seasonal variation

Seasonal variation

Bachelor of Business Studies (BBS) — First Year

Subject: Business Statistics (MGT 202)

Unit 7: Analysis of Time Series

Academic Year: 2083/84

Topic Objectives

After studying this topic, students should be able to:

• Explain the scope and key elements of seasonal variation.
• Select suitable statistical procedures, carry out calculations and interpret business results.

Curriculum Scope

• Simple-average method
• Ratio-to-moving-average method; quarters only

Detailed Microsyllabus

1. Quarterly seasonal variation

   1. Seasonal indices for four quarters.
   2. Simple-average method and normalization.
   3. Interpret indices relative to the chosen baseline.

2. Ratio-to-moving-average method

   1. Calculate and center quarterly moving averages.
   2. Obtain seasonal ratios and average by quarter.
   3. Normalize indices and use them to examine seasonal effects.

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Curriculum reference: Tribhuvan University, Faculty of Management, BBS curriculum with first-year syllabus, PDF pages 14-16.

Source note: The curriculum scope above is retained from the existing TU syllabus breakdown. The numbered study subtopics are editorial elaborations for teaching and study, rather than a separately issued TU syllabus. Unit lecture hours apply to the whole unit; no separate topic hours or marks are assigned here.